Vital Signs of the Planet - Effects | Facts – Climate Change

The Effects of Climate Change · Future Effects · Change Will Continue Through This Century and Beyond · Temperatures Will Continue to Rise · Frost-free Season (and ... Facts Evidence Causes Effects ScientificConsensus VitalSigns Questions(FAQ) Evidence Causes Effects ScientificConsensus VitalSigns Questions(FAQ) Thepotentialfutureeffectsofglobalclimatechangeincludemorefrequentwildfires,longerperiodsofdroughtinsomeregionsandanincreaseinthenumber,durationandintensityoftropicalstorms.Credit:Left-Mellimage/Shutterstock.com,center-MontreeHanlue/Shutterstock.com. ›enespañol InBrief: Theeffectsofhuman-causedglobalwarmingarehappeningnow,areirreversibleonthetimescaleofpeoplealivetoday,andwillworseninthedecadestocome. Globalclimatechangehasalreadyhadobservableeffectsontheenvironment.Glaciershaveshrunk,iceonriversandlakesisbreakingupearlier,plantandanimalrangeshaveshiftedandtreesarefloweringsooner. Effectsthatscientistshadpredictedinthepastwouldresultfromglobalclimatechangearenowoccurring:lossofseaice,acceleratedsealevelriseandlonger,moreintenseheatwaves. Takenasawhole,therangeofpublishedevidenceindicatesthatthenetdamagecostsofclimatechangearelikelytobesignificantandtoincreaseovertime. Scientistshavehighconfidencethatglobaltemperatureswillcontinuetorisefordecadestocome,largelyduetogreenhousegasesproducedbyhumanactivities.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),whichincludesmorethan1,300scientistsfromtheUnitedStatesandothercountries,forecastsatemperatureriseof2.5to10degreesFahrenheitoverthenextcentury. AccordingtotheIPCC,theextentofclimatechangeeffectsonindividualregionswillvaryovertimeandwiththeabilityofdifferentsocietalandenvironmentalsystemstomitigateoradapttochange. TheIPCCpredictsthatincreasesinglobalmeantemperatureoflessthan1.8to5.4degreesFahrenheit(1to3degreesCelsius)above1990levelswillproducebeneficialimpactsinsomeregionsandharmfulonesinothers.Netannualcostswillincreaseovertimeasglobaltemperaturesincrease. "Takenasawhole,"theIPCCstates,"therangeofpublishedevidenceindicatesthatthenetdamagecostsofclimatechangearelikelytobesignificantandtoincreaseovertime."1-2 FutureEffects Someofthelong-termeffectsofglobalclimatechangeintheUnitedStatesareasfollows,accordingtotheThirdandFourthNationalClimateAssessmentReports: ChangeWillContinueThroughThisCenturyandBeyond Globalclimateisprojectedtocontinuetochangeoverthiscenturyandbeyond.Themagnitudeofclimatechangebeyondthenextfewdecadesdependsprimarilyontheamountofheat-trappinggasesemittedglobally,andhowsensitivetheEarth’sclimateistothoseemissions. +more Earth’svitalsigns:Sealevel Anindicatorofcurrentglobalsealevelasmeasuredbysatellites;updatedmonthly. GISSclimatemodels NASAvisualizationsoffutureprecipitationscenarios. ClimateTimeMachine GobackwardandforwardintimewiththisinteractivevisualizationthatillustrateshowtheEarth'sclimatehaschangedinrecenthistory. TemperaturesWillContinuetoRise Becausehuman-inducedwarmingissuperimposedonanaturallyvaryingclimate,thetemperaturerisehasnotbeen,andwillnotbe,uniformorsmoothacrossthecountryorovertime. +more Video:Globalwarmingfrom1880to2019 Avisualizationofglobaltemperaturechangessince1880basedonNASAGISSdata. 21stcenturytemperaturescenarios NASAvisualizationoffutureglobaltemperatureprojectionsbasedoncurrentclimatemodels. Frost-freeSeason(andGrowingSeason)willLengthen Thelengthofthefrost-freeseason(andthecorrespondinggrowingseason)hasbeenincreasingnationallysincethe1980s,withthelargestincreasesoccurringinthewesternUnitedStates,affectingecosystemsandagriculture.AcrosstheUnitedStates,thegrowingseasonisprojectedtocontinuetolengthen. Inafutureinwhichheat-trappinggasemissionscontinuetogrow,increasesofamonthormoreinthelengthsofthefrost-freeandgrowingseasonsareprojectedacrossmostoftheU.S.bytheendofthecentury,withslightlysmallerincreasesinthenorthernGreatPlains.Thelargestincreasesinthefrost-freeseason(morethaneightweeks)areprojectedforthewesternU.S.,particularlyinhighelevationandcoastalareas.Theincreaseswillbeconsiderablysmallerifheat-trappinggasemissionsarereduced. +more Visualizationcomparing1950sand2010s ThisNASAvisualizationpresentsobservationalevidencethatthegrowingseason(climatologicalspring)isoccurringearlierintheNorthernHemisphere. ChangesinPrecipitationPatterns AverageU.S.precipitationhasincreasedsince1900,butsomeareashavehadincreasesgreaterthanthenationalaverage,andsomeareashavehaddecreases.MorewinterandspringprecipitationisprojectedforthenorthernUnitedStates,andlessfortheSouthwest,overthiscentury. ProjectionsoffutureclimateovertheU.S.suggestthattherecenttrendtowardsincreasedheavyprecipitationeventswillcontinue.Thistrendisprojectedtooccureveninregionswheretotalprecipitationisexpectedtodecrease,suchastheSouthwest. +more NASAvisualizationsoffutureprecipitationscenarios TheseNASAvisualizationsshowmodelprojectionsoftheprecipitationchangesfrom2000to2100asapercentagedifferencebetweenthe30-yearprecipitationaveragesandthe1970-1999average. PrecipitationMeasurementMissions TheofficialwebsiteforNASA'sfleetofEarthsciencemissionsthatstudyrainfallandothertypesprecipitationaroundtheglobe. Precipitationquiz Earth’swaterisstorediniceandsnow,lakesandrivers,theatmosphereandtheoceans.HowmuchdoyouknowaboutEarth'swatercycleandthecrucialroleitplaysinourclimate? MoreDroughtsandHeatWaves DroughtsintheSouthwestandheatwaves(periodsofabnormallyhotweatherlastingdaystoweeks)everywhereareprojectedtobecomemoreintense,andcoldwaveslessintenseeverywhere. Summertemperaturesareprojectedtocontinuerising,andareductionofsoilmoisture,whichexacerbatesheatwaves,isprojectedformuchofthewesternandcentralU.S.insummer.Bytheendofthiscentury,whathavebeenonce-in-20-yearextremeheatdays(one-dayevents)areprojectedtooccureverytwoorthreeyearsovermostofthenation. +more NASAvisualizationsoffutureprecipitationscenarios TheseNASAvisualizationsshowmodelprojectionsoftheprecipitationchangesfrom2000to2100asapercentagedifferencebetweenthe30-yearprecipitationaveragesandthe1970-1999average. NASA:MegadroughtsinU.S.Westprojectedtobeworstofmillennium DroughtsintheSouthwestandCentralPlainsoftheUnitedStatesinthesecondhalfofthe21stcenturycouldbedrierandlongerthananythinghumanshaveseeninthoseregionsinthelast1,000years,accordingtoaNASAstudypublishedinScienceAdvancesonFebruary12,2015. HurricanesWillBecomeStrongerandMoreIntense Theintensity,frequencyanddurationofNorthAtlantichurricanes,aswellasthefrequencyofthestrongest(Category4and5)hurricanes,haveallincreasedsincetheearly1980s.Therelativecontributionsofhumanandnaturalcausestotheseincreasesarestilluncertain.Hurricane-associatedstormintensityandrainfallratesareprojectedtoincreaseastheclimatecontinuestowarm. +more NASA:WhatarethechancesofanotherHurricaneKatrina? AccordingtoanewNASAstudy,astringofnineyearswithoutamajorhurricanelandfallintheU.S.isIikelytocomealongonlyonceevery177years.Thisvideoexplainsthefindingsofthisstudy. SeaLevelWillRise1-8feetby2100 Globalsealevelhasrisenbyabout8inchessincereliablerecordkeepingbeganin1880.Itisprojectedtoriseanother1to8feetby2100.Thisistheresultofaddedwaterfrommeltinglandiceandtheexpansionofseawaterasitwarms. Inthenextseveraldecades,stormsurgesandhightidescouldcombinewithsealevelriseandlandsubsidencetofurtherincreasefloodinginmanyregions.Sealevelrisewillcontinuepast2100becausetheoceanstakeaverylongtimetorespondtowarmerconditionsattheEarth’ssurface.Oceanwaterswillthereforecontinuetowarmandsealevelwillcontinuetoriseformanycenturiesatratesequaltoorhigherthanthoseofthecurrentcentury. +more Earth’svitalsigns:Sealevel Anindicatorofcurrentglobalsealevelasmeasuredbysatellites;updatedmonthly. Sealevelquiz Testyourknowledgeofsealevelriseanditseffectonglobalpopulations. ArcticLikelytoBecomeIce-Free TheArcticOceanisexpectedtobecomeessentiallyicefreeinsummerbeforemid-century. +more Earth’svitalsigns:Seaice AnindicatorofchangesintheArcticseaiceminimumovertime.Arcticseaiceextentbothaffectsandisaffectedbyglobalclimatechange. GlobalIceViewer Aninteractiveexplorationofhowglobalwarmingisaffectingseaice,glaciersandcontinentalicesheetsworldwide. U.S.RegionalEffects BelowaresomeoftheimpactsthatarecurrentlyvisiblethroughouttheU.S.andwillcontinuetoaffecttheseregions,accordingtotheThird3andFourth4NationalClimateAssessmentReports,releasedbytheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram: Northeast.Heatwaves,heavydownpoursandsealevelriseposegrowingchallengestomanyaspectsoflifeintheNortheast.Infrastructure,agriculture,fisheriesandecosystemswillbeincreasinglycompromised.Manystatesandcitiesarebeginningtoincorporateclimatechangeintotheirplanning. Northwest.Changesinthetimingofstreamflowreducewatersuppliesforcompetingdemands.Sealevelrise,erosion,inundation,riskstoinfrastructureandincreasingoceanacidityposemajorthreats.Increasingwildfire,insectoutbreaksandtreediseasesarecausingwidespreadtreedie-off. Southeast.Sealevelriseposeswidespreadandcontinuingthreatstotheregion’seconomyandenvironment.Extremeheatwillaffecthealth,energy,agricultureandmore.Decreasedwateravailabilitywillhaveeconomicandenvironmentalimpacts. Midwest.Extremeheat,heavydownpoursandfloodingwillaffectinfrastructure,health,agriculture,forestry,transportation,airandwaterquality,andmore.ClimatechangewillalsoexacerbatearangeofriskstotheGreatLakes. Southwest.Increasedheat,droughtandinsectoutbreaks,alllinkedtoclimatechange,haveincreasedwildfires.Decliningwatersupplies,reducedagriculturalyields,healthimpactsincitiesduetoheat,andfloodinganderosionincoastalareasareadditionalconcerns. References IPCC2007,SummaryforPolicymakers,inClimateChange2007:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability.ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UK,p.17. IPCC,2013:SummaryforPolicymakers.In:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Stocker,T.F.,D.Qin,G.-K.Plattner,M.Tignor,S.K.Allen,J.Boschung,A.Nauels,Y.Xia,V.BexandP.M.Midgley(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA. USGCRP2014,ThirdClimateAssessment. USGCRP2017,FourthClimateAssessment. Credit:VladisChern/Shutterstock.comSo,theEarth'saveragetemperaturehasincreasedabout2degreesFahrenheitduringthe20thcentury.What'sthebigdeal? Twodegreesmaysoundlikeasmallamount,butit'sanunusualeventinourplanet'srecenthistory.Earth'sclimaterecord,preservedintreerings,icecores,andcoralreefs,showsthattheglobalaveragetemperatureisstableoverlongperiodsoftime.Furthermore,smallchangesintemperaturecorrespondtoenormouschangesintheenvironment. Forexample,attheendofthelasticeage,whentheNortheastUnitedStateswascoveredbymorethan3,000feetofice,averagetemperatureswereonly5to9degreescoolerthantoday. TheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram'sThirdAssessmentReport TheIPCC's2014reportonclimatechangeimpacts,adaptationandvulnerability Latestresources Video:GlobalWarmingfrom1880to2020 Video:OzoneWatch2018 Earth360Video:TheCallofScience ImagesofChange Exploreastunninggalleryofbefore-and-afterimagesofEarthfromlandandspacethatrevealourhomeplanetinastateofflux. ClimateTimeMachine TravelthroughEarth'srecentclimatehistoryandseehowincreasingcarbondioxide,globaltemperatureandseaicehavechangedovertime. EyesontheEarth TrackEarth'svitalsignsfromspaceandflyalongwithNASA'sEarth-observingsatellitesinaninteractive3Dvisualization. GlobalIceViewer Earth'sicecoverisshrinking.Seehowclimatechangehasaffectedglaciers,seaice,andcontinentalicesheets.